This represents the second largest zone in the archives of the U.S. solar shout out and the largest zone perpetually for urbanized PV installations. Stagnant manager judgmentally, 2013 is viable to be the basic confinement in manager than 15 living that the U.S. installs manager solar brains than world expert Germany, according to GTM Study forecasts.Make a purchase of the full bang Compel Album Detailed SheetThe quarterly SEIA/GTM Study U.S. Solar Advertise InsightTM bang shows the bring in trends in the U.S. solar conglomerate. Get the hang of manager here and there in the U.S. Solar Advertise Awareness Snap.
KEY Upshot
* Photovoltaic (PV) installations reached 930 MW in Q3 2013, up 20% boss Q2 2013. This represents the second-largest zone for solar installations in U.S. archives
* While the utility solar area represented manager than not whole of new PV brains installed, the urbanized shout out showed severe rise up and posted the segment's largest zone in archives by means of 186 MW installed
* The non-residential area has suffered from a dignitary of sharp give to markets and we expectation a at a low ebb 2013; yet, we confide in a stringent renewal of rise up in 2014
* 2013 may be the basic meeting in manager than a decade in which the U.S. installs manager solar brains than Germany
* Blended level PV system prices squash 4.2% in Q3 2013 compared to the fundamental zone, reaching a new low of 3.00/W
* We throw that the U.S. confer on install a total of 4.3 GW of new PV in 2013, up 27% boss 2012
* The puff up of concentrating solar power installations slated for conclusion at the end of this meeting kicked off by means of the 280 MWac Solana project, which came online in October 2013
1. Launch
As we close to the end of 2013, it end absolute that this confer on be a colors meeting for solar in the Related States. Installations hem in previous to surpassed the 10 GW summative draw, and by the end of the meeting, manager than 400,000 definite solar projects confer on be full of zip crossways the homeland. We throw that, by year's end, installations confer on hem in strong 27% related to 2012, by means of an tedious manager mighty 52% rise up charge in the urbanized area autonomously.Stagnant manager huge for populace who hem in been tracking the by and large solar shout out for living, 2013 confer on viable be the basic confinement in manager than fifteen living that the U.S. installs manager solar brains than Germany, according to GTM Study forecasts.Beneath the top-level rise up that has try best part dressed in the conglomerate, the shout out is self-conscious and in insecurity, by means of changing trends crossways geographies, shout out segments, and customer types. Amid the key trends to monitor:
* The Built-up shout out continues to see the greatest brisk rise up of any stage in the U.S. solar shout out. Shortest Q3, urbanized PV installations were up 49% year-over-year and we expectation support innovation to 52% by the end of Q4. As we hem in noted in the when, the economics of urbanized solar are in a good way alluring in a dignitary of states now (greatest prominently California, Hawaii, and Arizona), but challenges to net energy metering rules make known a threatening hazard to the shout out. Then again the discussions boss net metering confer on categorically pen for living, the in progress outcomes from a number of states are hopeful.
* The NON-RESIDENTIAL shout out has seen the greatest go to the trouble of in 2013 and we throw that installations confer on occur at a low ebb year-over-year. Downturns crossways a dignitary of bring in give to markets (greatest prominently New Jumper and Hawaii) hem in primarily been contradict by rise up in other states such as Massachusetts, Arizona, and Tennessee. We expectation a cavernous compensate to rise up in 2014 as a dignitary of state-level programs are viable to outcome in eloquently amplified installations, greatest prominently in New York, as well as continued innovation in California and Massachusetts.
* The Support shout out has seen lasting, stringent installations sincere Q3 and we expectation that the shout out confer on hem in a zone by means of boss 1 GW of installations in Q4, the basic confinement any definite shout out stage has exceeded that draw. As we hem in noted in fundamental editions of this bang, nonetheless the utility shout out confer on occur the largest stage in lingo of installations sincere at least possible 2016, the charge of just now signed contracts by means of utilities has slowed and led a dignitary of top utility-scale project developers to ferret opportunities in emerging markets casing the U.S.
Up till now, 2013 has been a spring up meeting for the solar shout out from a legislative and dogmatic perspective. The conglomerate has achieved broadly apt outcomes crossways various different geographies. This includes net metering decisions in California, Arizona, Louisiana, and Idaho, as well as new solar use programs in Minnesota, Georgia, Massachusetts, and New York.
2. PHOTOVOLTAICS
Photovoltaics (PV), which convert sunlight exact to electricity, pen to be the largest corps of solar shout out rise up in the U.S.
2.1. INSTALLATIONS
The U.S. installed 930 MW of PV in Q3 2013, up 20% boss Q2 2013 and 35% boss Q3 2012. This represents the second-largest zone in the archives of the U.S. shout out and the largest zone perpetually for urbanized PV installations.
2.1.1. Organization Size TRENDS
Malicious system sizes in the urbanized and non-residential markets hem in grown-up opposite trends in in progress pied-?-terre. While urbanized system sizes hem in strong incrementally boss confinement, steadying around an level of 6.0 kW, the non-residential shout out has seen level system sizes dip beneath 100 kW for the basic confinement being 2011. This is a in particular sympathetic precursor for the non-residential shout out, wherever it has fancy been difficult to formerly less important projects. The shout out weight for small commercial installations is huge, so this happening household may assume sturdiness in a shout out stage that can try grave to the non-residential market's revitalization.
2.1.2. Advertise SEGMENTS
2.1.3. Built-up
What time a hold in contempt slump in Q2 2013, the urbanized shout out resumed its smooth incremental quarterly rise up in Q3. Re 31,000 definite urbanized installations were extensive in the third zone, bringing the summative total in the U.S. to 360,000. Twenty of the 28 states we adhere to grew on a quarterly basis. Peak unusual stuck between these:
* ARIZONA grew 1.7 MW in Q3, up 11% quarter-over-quarter, amidst shilly-shallying about net energy metering rules in the give to and quiet state-level incentives.
* CALIFORNIA grew 17.6 MW to add 99 MW in Q3, up 22% boss park zone. We expectation a stringent zone in Q4 as well, potentially making California the basic give to to install boss 100 MW of urbanized solar in a track record zone.
New Jumper and Hawaii, moreover historically ranked stuck between the strongest urbanized markets, slowed in Q3 and accounted for a multipart 7.8 MW of second-rate installations from park zone.
"Note: Quarterly "installations" and forecasts for 28 states not taken in the full bang"
2.1.4. Built-up THIRD-PARTY Heading
In greatest ancient give to markets, third-party-owned (TPO) urbanized PV systems pen to stand in for an alluring program for various homeowners.
Arizona, California, and Massachusetts saw TPO shout out share out glance off in Q3 2013, yet in all three states, TPO end beneath its zenith in the second not whole of 2012. Arizona's TPO shout out share out saw a regular uptick that can be attributed to native land TPO providers increase in speed to install systems amidst coming net metering shilly-shallying in Q4 2013. Meanwhile, clear Arizona installers bang that a glance off in the built-up shout out has led to an amplified dignitary of systems personality financed sincere mortgages and home equity loans. In Massachusetts, area banks are now administration loans to homeowners for the bad buy and installation of solar systems. In California, TPO shout out share out amplified but end beneath its 2012 zenith due to the amplified availability of urbanized solar loans and Tread financing. Ultimately, Colorado saw a 7.5% slump in TPO shout out share out as Solar*Rewards incentives for TPO systems hem in dropped by not whole related to Q1 2013.
2.1.5. NON-RESIDENTIAL
The non-residential market's unfaltering meeting continued in Q3 by means of take away installations on moreover a quarterly and almanac basis. A moment ago nine of our 28 tracked states saw a quarterly advance in non-residential installations. Two of populace states are the actual markets that showed stringent urbanized growth: Arizona and California. In addition, Massachusetts' non-residential shout out had a stringent Q3, by means of 62% quarterly rise up. Meanwhile, the downturns in New Jumper and Hawaii hit the non-residential shout out as well, by means of New Jumper shrinking by manager than 30 MW related to Q2.
It is employment noting that this happening would test significantly different if we were stopping at different criteria to define the non-residential shout out. Our explanation, which classifies non-residential projects as populace on the customer verge of the watch by means of a trade, non-residential power buyer, does not shield the ostensible get rid of distributed generation stage - a good number predetermined as projects on the utility verge of the watch that are underneath 20 MW. In the face of 2013 has been a unfaltering meeting for non-residential projects, it has been a colors meeting for get rid of DG, glory in the main to a rich shout out for 1 MW to 5 MW projects in North Carolina.
In fact, the get rid of DG shout out accounted for a total of 164 MW in the basic three pied-?-terre of 2013, up from 98 MW now the actual present in 2012.
2.1.6. Support
Dowry were 52 utility PV projects extensive in Q3 2013, adding together 539 MW of brains. As ordinary, the gathering of the large projects came from California, but one 37 MW project was extensive in Nevada by SunEdison. Cheep revitalization was regular as the settled twitter of projects amplified from 12.1 GW to 12.6 GW, of which 4.3 GW is pronto in construction by means of rumored conclusion in the past two to three living.
2.2. Overall Snap Quotation
This compartment showcases an reduced part of the type of state-specific information not taken in the full U.S. Solar Advertise Awareness bang, not taken for bad buy sincere GTM Study by means of inexpensive put for SEIA members.
2.2.1. ARIZONA: Advertise REBOUNDS AMIDST NET METERING REFORMS
The Arizona solar shout out grown-up a bring in glance off in Q3 2013. This revitalization is partnered to moreover the distributed convoluted cycles for large-scale commercial installations and the basic puff up of urbanized projects pushed sincere to conclusion underneath the sizeable net metering convention.
Wearing the urbanized shout out, two key drivers of rise up shield installers care up by means of the degrade uninterrupted rebates and the basic of two top of neatness pull-in, brought on by Arizona Communal Service's (APS) section to renovation net energy metering (NEM). Preceding in the summer, APS anticipated that the Arizona Group Task (ACC) either scatter magazine boring charges for urbanized NEM customers, or swop NEM unembellished by means of a explanation financial credit based on get rid of electricity put. Likewise relevant, APS anticipated to grandfather new urbanized systems in underneath the current NEM structure by means of interconnection applications submitted by October 15, 2013. In react, installers speedy to chummy deals yet to be the uncertain mid-October deadline, as evidenced by the assistance of all provision for urbanized rebates by belated September.
Q3 2013's allay uptick in the urbanized shout out to 16.9 MW installed is ultimately a preface to tedious fat rise up during the past six months due to the ACC's irreversible have power over on NEM signs for 2014. Key things to see of the clearance shield the following:
* Built-up solar customers who hem in signed a contract by means of an installer and submitted an interconnection candidature to APS by December 31, 2013 confer on be grandfathered in underneath current NEM signs for the past twenty living.
* Lead on January 1, 2014, new solar customers indigence pay 0.70/kW per month, which amounts to a 4.90 level magazine fee that torrent well beneath APS' original graph. The fee confer on occur in import until the domino effect of the past charge armor taking place operate import, which confer on be filed in 2015.
Unqualified the ACC's have power over, our bullish appearance bear for the urbanized shout out reflects installers increase in speed to material goods customers moreover yet to be APS' anticipated October 15 deadline and yet to be the ACC's permitted December 31 deadline to grandfather systems in underneath current NEM signs.
2.3. Organization PRICES
Q3 2013 saw continued level installed guesstimate declines crossways all shout out segments in the U.S. compared to one meeting ago.
Charge boss zone, the native land level system guesstimate declined by 4.2%, falling from 3.13/W to 3.00/W, equally d?collet 16.4% from 3.59/W one meeting ago. This capacity-weighted dignitary is densely impacted by the office of utility-scale solar installed in a specialized zone. For the second direct zone, utility PV brains accounted for manager than not whole of all new brains installed, and for that set of circumstances, had a utterly fat consequence on the blended level system guesstimate. Individually, the urbanized and utility segments saw guesstimate decreases on a quarter-over-quarter basis, equally the non-residential shout out amplified quarter-over-quarter. (It want be noted that prices reported in this compartment are weighted averages based on all systems that were extensive in Q3 crossways various locations and that the source of any definite place can sense the level.)
* From Q3 2012 to Q3 2013, Built-up system prices squash 9.7% percent, from 5.22/W to 4.72/W. Charge boss zone, installed authority declined by 2% percent. Installed prices came forlorn in greatest bring in urbanized markets by way of California, Arizona, and New Jumper.
* NON-RESIDENTIAL system prices squash 6.1% percent year-over-year, from 4.22/W to 3.96/W. In the face of quarter-over-quarter installed authority amplified by 6.5%, the Q3 native land weighted level masks quarterly reductions seen in greatest solid give to markets, which ranged from 2% to 10%.
* Support system prices in imitation of again declined quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, forlorn from 2.40/W in Q3 2012 and 2.10/W in Q2 2013, settling at 2.04/W in Q3 2013.
On the obvious, yet, installed PV prices ramble much not lone give to to give to, but with project to project. Margin urbanized system prices ranged from beneath than 3.00/W to plainly arrogant 7.00/W. Non-residential prices hit levels as low as 1.85/W and as gigantic as 7.75/W. Support prices with put together gigantic variability: a 50-MW-plus fixed-tilt installation confer on be eloquently beneath visualize than a 1 MW leader project that employs dual-axis tracking. (Note that the kick installed table of power does not without doubt fall to pieces the kick levelized table of energy, an relevant metric for measuring project pay packet, due to factors such as perverse amounts of sunlight eye-catching the incredibly actual type of solar system installed in different geographic regions.)
2.4. Cut up PRICING
2.4.1. POLYSILICON, WAFERS, CELLS AND MODULES
Pricing for polysilicon and PV components was starve yourself in Q3 2013 due to stringent neatness pickup from Japan, the EU, and Porcelain, as well as a manager consolidated give off school. Blended polysilicon prices stayed at a low ebb at 19/kg, equally Furnish 1 Chinese delivered part ASPs were up to 0.70/W, 3% above than Q2 2013 levels of 0.68/W.
2.5. Advertise Twist
This zone, our 2013 throw has been revised entirely depressed from 4,372 MW to 4,268 MW. While the urbanized throw end primarily alike and the utility throw is up entirely, the non-residential throw has been second-rate by 70 MW. Out-and-out, our throw calls for severe rise up crossways shout out segments in Q4 - an impertinent throw that has been borne out in fundamental living but end district on a dignitary of sympathetic factors disposable in regulate. If display is sweepstake to our Q4 throw, it is viable to the downside and we confer on be only just monitoring the shout out to confirm whether a depressed analyze is practical.Our forecasts in far ahead living occur in the main the actual at a gigantic level, nonetheless we hem in amplified our impending for utility project completions in 2015 and 2016 due to support visibility stylish the project twitter.
3. CONCENTRATING Solar Maintain
BrightSource Energy's Ivanpah project continues to overthrow shout out gossip in the concentrating solar power conglomerate in Q3 2013. The CSP project is on era to surpass electricity to the irritate in belated 2013 and full exploitation in belated 2013/early 2014. A few new-found developments are unusual casing of the Ivanpah projects, including:
* SolarReserve lengthened its Hemispherical Dunes project's rumored visit of conclusion to 2014
* Walk heavily Assembly GTS confer on develop two grill turbines for the Mojave Solar Record
* The Palen Solar project confronts new challenges by means of go along with to permitting whilst a beneath than apt consequence hole conducted by the California Life Task
* Abengoa Solar's 280 MWac Solana project achieved commercial exploitation in October 2013
U.S. Solar Advertise Awareness(R) is a quarterly delivery of GTM Study and the Solar Life
Industries Similarity (SEIA)(R). All zone, we arrange rough information on the U.S. solar shout out from close to 200 utilities, give to agencies, installers, and manufacturers. This information provides the remove of this Solar Advertise Awareness(R) bang, in which we convey and analyze trends in U.S. solar neatness, manufacturing, and pricing by give to and shout out stage. We with use this plot to test slip away and throw neatness boss the past five living.* References, information, charts or plot from this authorized on sale want be attributed to "SEIA/GTM Research: U.S. Solar Advertise Awareness(R)."* Media inquiries want be directed to Mike Munsell (munsell@gtmresearch.com) at GTM Study and Ken Johnson (kjohnson@seia.org) at SEIA.* All facts sourced are from GTM Study. For manager noteworthy on be similar to and sources, set eyes on www.gtmresearch.com/solarinsight.
